Question: What is the most likely explanation for what was in the case?
Question: What was the point of Sean Bean's role in this movie? I get that he is exposed as a fraud, but it doesn't really affect the plot one way or the other.
Chosen answer: It is true that it doesn't affect the plot. However Spence's (Bean's) failure can be contrasted with the professionalism of the main characters. Also it raises the possibility that whoever hired them isn't taking necessary precautions in planning and hiring. Earlier we heard Sam (De Niro) ask Vincent (Reno) if he was "labour or management" which suggests a theme of professional operators getting their hands dirty while their bosses play politics.
Question: Why does the fake case have wet paint if the swap was planned?
Answer: It's a while since I've seen the movie but if I'm remembering correctly, the meet was at short notice. Gregor had the case prepped for the swap but didn't have a chance to paint it in enough time for the paint to dry properly.
Answer: There's no way of knowing what was in the case. It is a plot device called a "MacGuffin," a term coined by director Alfred Hitchcock. It doesn't actually matter what the object is but is just something that drives the story. It can be any type of object or device such as a "secret formula," "enemy war plans," a "nuclear weapon," a "treasure map," and so on that the characters are either searching for or protecting. There was never any intention to reveal what it was. Its purpose is to motivate the characters' actions and tell the story. Most likely it was intended to be a McGuffin just to keep the audience guessing and thinking about the movie long after it ends.
raywest ★